Opinion Poll by Aximage for Folha Nacional, 17–21 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 31.0% 29.2–33.0% 28.6–33.5% 28.2–34.0% 27.3–35.0%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.5% 25.3–30.9% 24.4–31.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.1–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.0–23.7%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 48% 99.0%  
8 49% 51% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 31% 99.9%  
7 65% 69% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 70% 72% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 8 0% 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 48% 99.0%  
8 49% 51% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 70% 72% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 40%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations