Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 17–26 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 29.0% 27.4–30.7% 26.9–31.2% 26.5–31.7% 25.8–32.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 25.4–28.7% 25.0–29.2% 24.6–29.6% 23.8–30.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–20.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.6% 6.1–10.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 20% 100%  
7 75% 80% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 71% 98.8% Median
7 27% 27%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 80% 82% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 48% 100%  
2 52% 52% Median
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 71% 98.8% Median
7 27% 27%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 80% 82% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 94% 97% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations