Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 20–26 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 30.7% 28.2–33.4% 27.5–34.2% 26.9–34.8% 25.7–36.1%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.9% 24.5–29.5% 23.8–30.2% 23.2–30.8% 22.1–32.1%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 14.2% 12.4–16.3% 11.9–16.9% 11.5–17.5% 10.7–18.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 10.7% 9.2–12.7% 8.7–13.2% 8.4–13.7% 7.7–14.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.6% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4% 3.1–6.8% 2.7–7.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.9–4.9% 1.6–5.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.9–4.9% 1.6–5.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.2–3.7% 0.9–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 6% 100%  
7 57% 94% Median
8 34% 37%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 58% 94% Median
7 34% 36%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 75% 95% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 77% 98.8% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 82% 83% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 58% 94% Median
7 34% 36%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 75% 95% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 73% 88% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 17%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations