Opinion Poll by Consulmark2 for Euronews and Sol, 27 March–3 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.3% 30.8–35.8% 30.1–36.6% 29.6–37.2% 28.4–38.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.9% 23.7–28.3% 23.0–29.0% 22.5–29.6% 21.5–30.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 13.6% 11.9–15.5% 11.4–16.1% 11.0–16.6% 10.3–17.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.1% 6.8–9.7% 6.4–10.2% 6.1–10.6% 5.5–11.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.3% 2.5–6.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.7% 2.1–6.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.6–4.2% 1.3–4.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.5% 0.7–2.7% 0.5–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 24% 99.6%  
8 59% 75% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 14% 100%  
6 66% 86% Median
7 20% 20%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 82% 89% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 59% 59% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 48%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 14% 100%  
6 66% 86% Median
7 20% 20%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 82% 89% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result, Median
1 49% 51%  
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations