Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 4–8 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 30.1% 27.9–32.5% 27.3–33.2% 26.8–33.7% 25.7–34.9%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 27.1% 25.0–29.4% 24.4–30.1% 23.9–30.7% 22.9–31.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 18.6% 16.8–20.6% 16.2–21.2% 15.8–21.7% 15.0–22.7%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9% 4.6–8.2% 4.1–8.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.9% 3.0–6.2% 2.7–6.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 65% 92% Median
8 27% 27%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 52% 98% Median
7 45% 46%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 70% 98% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.7% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 74% 74% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 65% 92% Median
8 27% 27%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 70% 98% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 74% 74% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations