Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 4–9 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.8% 26.3–31.5% 25.6–32.2% 25.0–32.9% 23.9–34.2%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 27.2% 24.8–29.9% 24.1–30.6% 23.6–31.3% 22.5–32.5%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.1% 15.1–19.4% 14.6–20.1% 14.1–20.6% 13.2–21.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.8% 5.6–8.5% 5.2–8.9% 4.9–9.3% 4.4–10.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.8% 4.7–7.4% 4.4–7.8% 4.1–8.2% 3.6–9.0%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.0–6.5% 3.7–7.0% 3.5–7.3% 3.0–8.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.2% 2.2–5.5% 1.9–6.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 25% 99.5%  
7 61% 75% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 52% 97% Median
7 42% 45%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 72% 81% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 78% 99.9% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 92% 93% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 25% 99.5%  
7 61% 75% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 72% 81% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 82% 98.7% Median
2 16% 17%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 62% 96% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations