Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 5–14 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 30.9–35.2% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.3% 28.9–37.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.5–31.7% 26.0–32.3% 25.0–33.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.0% 19.3–23.0% 18.8–23.5% 18.4–24.0% 17.5–25.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 26% 99.9%  
8 67% 74% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 23% 99.9%  
7 70% 77% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 22% 100%  
5 74% 78% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) – LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 23% 99.9%  
7 70% 77% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 22% 100%  
5 74% 78% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) – LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations