Opinion Poll by Consulmark2 for Euronews and Sol, 14–22 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.1% 31.6–36.7% 30.9–37.4% 30.3–38.1% 29.1–39.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.1% 24.8–29.6% 24.1–30.3% 23.6–30.9% 22.5–32.1%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 15.1% 13.3–17.2% 12.8–17.8% 12.4–18.3% 11.6–19.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.4% 6.3–10.8% 5.7–11.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.2% 2.5–6.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.3–4.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.3–4.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.3% 0.4–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 16% 99.9%  
8 63% 84% Median
9 21% 22%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 58% 95% Median
7 36% 37%  
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 66% 98.6% Median
4 33% 33%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 37% 100%  
2 62% 63% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 58% 95% Median
7 36% 37%  
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 66% 98.6% Median
4 33% 33%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations