Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 21–24 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.3–33.8% 29.9–34.3% 29.4–34.7% 28.7–35.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.0% 24.4–27.7% 24.0–28.2% 23.6–28.6% 22.9–29.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 44% 99.7%  
8 54% 55% Median
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 84% 94% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 74% 99.7% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 84% 94% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 74% 99.7% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 57% 59% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations