Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 29 April–2 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.4% 32.3–36.6% 31.7–37.3% 31.2–37.8% 30.3–38.9%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.7% 25.7–29.7% 25.1–30.3% 24.7–30.8% 23.8–31.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 15.7% 14.1–17.4% 13.7–17.9% 13.3–18.4% 12.6–19.2%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 4.9–9.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.5% 1.8–5.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 65% 93% Median
9 28% 28%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 48% 99.1%  
7 49% 51% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 51% 99.9% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 48% 99.1%  
7 49% 51% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 51% 99.9% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations