Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 1–5 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.4% 26.3–30.8% 25.6–31.4% 25.1–32.0% 24.1–33.2%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.1% 26.0–30.5% 25.3–31.1% 24.8–31.7% 23.8–32.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.2–20.1% 15.7–20.7% 15.3–21.2% 14.4–22.2%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.8% 5.9–9.2% 5.6–9.6% 5.1–10.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.9–5.9% 2.5–6.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.0% 1.9–5.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.1% 1.4–4.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.5–3.9% 1.3–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 29% 99.6%  
7 64% 70% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 34% 99.6%  
7 59% 66% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 76% 95% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 34% 99.6%  
7 59% 66% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 76% 95% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 29%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 69% 71% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations