Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 2–5 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.8% 32.7–37.0% 32.1–37.6% 31.6–38.2% 30.6–39.2%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.5% 24.6–28.6% 24.1–29.2% 23.6–29.7% 22.7–30.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.8% 15.2–18.6% 14.8–19.1% 14.4–19.5% 13.6–20.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 6% 100%  
8 63% 94% Median
9 30% 31%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 68% 95% Median
7 26% 26%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 24% 100%  
4 74% 76% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 88% 100% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 68% 95% Median
7 26% 26%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 24% 100%  
4 74% 76% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations