Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 28 April–6 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.4–33.6% 30.0–34.0% 29.6–34.4% 28.9–35.2%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.0% 26.5–29.6% 26.1–30.0% 25.8–30.4% 25.1–31.1%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 29% 100%  
8 69% 71% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 31% 100%  
7 68% 69% Median
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 31% 100%  
5 69% 69% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 61% 61% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 31% 100%  
7 68% 69% Median
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 31% 100%  
5 69% 69% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 61% 61% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations