Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 3–6 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.9% 32.8–37.1% 32.2–37.8% 31.7–38.3% 30.7–39.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.0% 24.1–28.1% 23.6–28.7% 23.1–29.2% 22.3–30.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.7% 15.1–18.5% 14.6–19.0% 14.3–19.4% 13.5–20.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.3% 1.1–3.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 59% 96% Median
9 36% 37%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 100%  
6 75% 91% Median
7 16% 16%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 26% 100%  
4 73% 74% Median
5 1.5% 1.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 100%  
6 75% 91% Median
7 16% 16%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 26% 100%  
4 73% 74% Median
5 1.5% 1.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations