Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 9–12 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.1% 31.0–35.3% 30.4–35.9% 29.9–36.4% 29.0–37.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 24.6% 22.7–26.6% 22.2–27.2% 21.7–27.7% 20.9–28.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.8% 16.1–19.6% 15.7–20.1% 15.3–20.6% 14.5–21.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.9% 4.8–8.2% 4.4–8.8%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.2–6.8% 4.0–7.1% 3.6–7.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.1% 0.5–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 18% 99.9%  
8 73% 82% Median
9 9% 9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 29% 99.9%  
6 67% 71% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 85% 94% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.9% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 29% 99.9%  
6 67% 71% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 85% 94% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 29%  
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations