Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 6–13 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.0% 32.6–35.5% 32.2–35.9% 31.8–36.3% 31.1–37.0%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.0% 24.7–27.4% 24.3–27.8% 24.0–28.1% 23.4–28.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.5–20.6% 17.2–20.9% 16.7–21.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 100%  
8 70% 99.0% Median
9 29% 29%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 81% 99.2% Median
7 18% 18%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 61% 100% Median
5 39% 39%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 99.2% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 81% 99.2% Median
7 18% 18%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 61% 100% Median
5 39% 39%  
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 99.2% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations