Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 11–14 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 31.9% 29.8–34.0% 29.2–34.6% 28.7–35.1% 27.8–36.2%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.2% 23.3–27.2% 22.8–27.8% 22.3–28.3% 21.4–29.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 19.1% 17.5–21.0% 17.0–21.5% 16.6–22.0% 15.8–22.9%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–7.1% 4.2–7.4% 3.8–8.0%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.6% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–7.1% 4.2–7.4% 3.8–8.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.7–3.9% 1.4–4.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 44% 99.3%  
8 53% 55% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 18% 100%  
6 76% 82% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 62% 99.3% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.0% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.9% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 18% 100%  
6 76% 82% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 62% 99.3% Median
5 37% 37%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.9% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 21%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations