Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 12–15 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.2% 31.1–35.4% 30.5–36.0% 30.0–36.5% 29.1–37.6%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.6% 23.7–27.6% 23.1–28.2% 22.7–28.7% 21.8–29.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 19.3% 17.6–21.1% 17.1–21.7% 16.7–22.1% 15.9–23.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.4–7.6% 4.0–8.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.4–7.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–3.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 23% 99.9%  
8 70% 77% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 17% 100%  
6 75% 83% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 59% 99.4% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.4% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 17% 100%  
6 75% 83% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 59% 99.4% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations