Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 5–15 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 29.9% 27.5–32.4% 26.8–33.2% 26.2–33.8% 25.1–35.1%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 21.8% 19.6–24.1% 19.0–24.8% 18.5–25.4% 17.5–26.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.8% 19.6–24.1% 19.0–24.8% 18.5–25.4% 17.5–26.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.1–10.2% 6.7–10.6% 6.4–11.1% 5.8–11.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.4% 6.1–9.0% 5.8–9.4% 5.5–9.9% 4.9–10.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6% 2.6–5.9% 2.3–6.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–5.0% 2.2–5.3% 1.9–5.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 13% 99.9%  
7 66% 87% Median
8 20% 20%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 74% 88% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 72% 87% Median
6 15% 15%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 69% 70% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 31%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 72% 87% Median
6 15% 15%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 74% 88% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 58% 73% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 31%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations