Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 11–18 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 26.3% 24.1–28.8% 23.4–29.5% 22.8–30.2% 21.8–31.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 23.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.8–26.8% 20.3–27.4% 19.3–28.5%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 20.3% 18.2–22.6% 17.6–23.2% 17.1–23.8% 16.2–24.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.9% 8.4–11.7% 8.0–12.2% 7.7–12.6% 7.0–13.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.1–9.0% 5.7–9.4% 5.5–9.8% 4.9–10.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6% 2.6–5.9% 2.3–6.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.7–5.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.8–4.6% 1.5–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 61% 94% Median
7 32% 33%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 42% 99.1%  
6 53% 57% Median
7 3% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 34% 99.7%  
5 61% 66% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 87% 97% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 59% 59% Median
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 42% 99.1%  
6 53% 57% Median
7 3% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 34% 99.7%  
5 61% 66% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 67% 98% Median
3 29% 30%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 59% 64% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations