Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 7–14 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.9% 26.6–31.4% 25.9–32.1% 25.4–32.8% 24.3–34.0%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.3% 24.1–28.8% 23.4–29.5% 22.9–30.1% 21.8–31.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 22.1% 20.0–24.5% 19.4–25.1% 18.9–25.7% 17.9–26.9%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 6.7–9.7% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.9% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.8% 4.3–8.2% 3.8–8.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.7–4.5% 1.4–5.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2% 0.7–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 26% 99.7%  
7 65% 74% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 68% 92% Median
7 24% 24%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 69% 92% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 95% 98.9% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 68% 92% Median
7 24% 24%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 69% 92% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 78% 99.1% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations