Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 2–5 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 26.8% 24.6–29.3% 23.9–30.0% 23.4–30.6% 22.3–31.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 23.7–28.4% 23.1–29.1% 22.5–29.7% 21.5–30.9%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 23.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.9–26.8% 20.4–27.4% 19.4–28.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.5% 5.3–8.0% 5.0–8.4% 4.7–8.8% 4.2–9.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–8.0% 4.5–8.4% 4.0–9.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.8% 1.5–4.1% 1.2–4.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.7–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 64% 97% Median
7 32% 33%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 62% 94% Median
7 31% 32%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 41% 99.0%  
6 54% 58% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 90% 99.8% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 91% 99.7% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 64% 97% Median
7 32% 33%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 41% 99.0%  
6 54% 58% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 90% 99.8% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations