Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 6–10 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 34.6% 32.2–37.1% 31.5–37.8% 30.9–38.4% 29.8–39.6%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 23.1–27.6% 22.5–28.3% 22.0–28.8% 21.0–30.0%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.8% 18.9–25.3% 17.9–26.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.9–5.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–2.9% 0.7–3.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 10% 99.9%  
8 60% 90% Median
9 29% 30%  
10 1.2% 1.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 21% 99.9%  
6 68% 79% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 74% 88% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 77% 78% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 49% 49%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 21% 99.9%  
6 68% 79% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 74% 88% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 77% 78% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations