Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 20–26 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.0% 25.7–30.5% 25.0–31.2% 24.4–31.8% 23.4–33.0%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.5% 23.3–28.0% 22.7–28.7% 22.1–29.3% 21.1–30.5%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 24.5% 22.3–26.9% 21.7–27.6% 21.1–28.2% 20.1–29.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–9.0% 5.2–9.4% 4.6–10.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.8–7.6% 3.4–8.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–6.0% 2.3–6.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.9–4.7% 1.6–5.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5% 0.7–2.7% 0.5–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 46% 98%  
7 49% 53% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 78% 87% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 38% 99.6%  
6 58% 61% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 80% 100% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 95% 96% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 38% 99.6%  
6 58% 61% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 78% 87% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 86% 97% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations