Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 23–27 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 32.5% 30.0–35.0% 29.3–35.8% 28.7–36.4% 27.6–37.7%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 23.9% 21.7–26.3% 21.1–26.9% 20.5–27.5% 19.5–28.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.9% 19.8–24.3% 19.2–24.9% 18.7–25.5% 17.8–26.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.1% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–8.0% 4.5–8.4% 4.0–9.2%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8% 4.3–8.2% 3.8–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–4.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.5% 0.4–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 31% 99.4%  
8 61% 68% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 40% 99.3%  
6 55% 59% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 72% 94% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.6% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.4% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 40% 99.3%  
6 55% 59% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 72% 94% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 91% 99.6% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations