Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 7–17 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliança Democrática (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.0% | 28.9–33.1% | 28.4–33.7% | 27.9–34.3% | 26.9–35.3% |
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.2% |
| Chega (PfE) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.2–26.0% | 21.7–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.5% | 2.5–6.1% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| LIVRE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliança Democrática (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Chega (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| LIVRE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Aliança Democrática (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 65% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 31% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 51% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chega (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 45% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Chega (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 51% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chega (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 45% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ICS/ISCTE
- Commissioner(s): Expresso and SIC Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 7–17 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 807
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.27%