Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 14–19 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 23.7–28.6% 23.1–29.3% 22.5–29.9% 21.5–31.1%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.1% 22.9–27.6% 22.2–28.3% 21.7–28.9% 20.6–30.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.8–26.8% 20.3–27.4% 19.3–28.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 6.7–9.7% 6.3–10.2% 6.0–10.6% 5.4–11.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.4% 5.2–7.9% 4.9–8.4% 4.6–8.7% 4.1–9.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.7–5.5% 2.5–5.8% 2.1–6.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.4% 1.5–3.7% 1.4–4.0% 1.1–4.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 11% 100%  
6 60% 89% Median
7 28% 29%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 19% 99.9%  
6 67% 81% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 44% 98.9%  
6 52% 55% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 86% 99.7% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 44% 98.9%  
6 52% 55% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 19% 99.9%  
6 67% 81% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 83% 99.7% Median
2 16% 17%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations