Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 12–16 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 25.5% 23.3–28.0% 22.7–28.6% 22.1–29.2% 21.1–30.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 23.1–27.8% 22.5–28.5% 22.0–29.1% 20.9–30.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.4% 21.3–25.8% 20.7–26.5% 20.1–27.1% 19.2–28.2%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 9.2% 7.8–10.9% 7.4–11.4% 7.1–11.8% 6.5–12.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.6% 5.4–8.1% 5.1–8.6% 4.8–8.9% 4.3–9.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.1–5.1% 1.8–5.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5% 0.7–2.7% 0.5–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 70% 87% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 16% 99.9%  
6 70% 84% Median
7 14% 14%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.5% 100%  
5 51% 98.5% Median
6 45% 47%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 86% 89% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 86% 99.9% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 16% 99.9%  
6 70% 84% Median
7 14% 14%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.5% 100%  
5 51% 98.5% Median
6 45% 47%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 86% 99.9% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 40%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations