Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 6–13 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 26.3% 24.3–28.5% 23.7–29.1% 23.2–29.6% 22.3–30.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 25.1% 23.1–27.2% 22.5–27.8% 22.1–28.3% 21.1–29.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 23.4% 21.5–25.5% 21.0–26.1% 20.5–26.6% 19.6–27.7%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 9.4% 8.1–10.9% 7.8–11.4% 7.5–11.7% 6.9–12.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.4% 5.9–9.8% 5.4–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–4.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.5% 0.6–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 69% 95% Median
7 26% 26%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 19% 100%  
6 72% 81% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 55% 99.2% Median
6 43% 44%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 91% 94% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 19% 100%  
6 72% 81% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 55% 99.2% Median
6 43% 44%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations