Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 2–3 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 24.7–29.6% 24.1–30.3% 23.5–30.9% 22.4–32.1%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 26.7% 24.4–29.2% 23.7–29.9% 23.2–30.5% 22.1–31.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 25.8% 23.5–28.3% 22.8–29.0% 22.3–29.6% 21.2–30.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.2–9.1% 5.8–9.5% 5.5–10.0% 5.0–10.8%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.0–5.9% 2.8–6.2% 2.4–6.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.2% 1.7–4.5% 1.4–5.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.3% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.1% 0.3–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 60% 93% Median
7 33% 34%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 63% 92% Median
7 28% 28%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 18% 99.9%  
6 68% 82% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 66% 100% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 18% 99.9%  
6 68% 82% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 60% 93% Median
7 33% 34%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations