Opinion Poll by ICS-ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 27 February–8 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.4–31.7% 25.9–32.2% 25.0–33.2%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 29.0% 27.0–31.1% 26.4–31.7% 25.9–32.2% 25.0–33.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.5–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 26% 99.9%  
7 69% 74% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 27% 99.9%  
7 68% 73% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 25% 100%  
6 71% 75% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 26% 99.9%  
7 69% 74% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 25% 100%  
6 71% 75% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 57% 58% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations