Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 8–14 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.8% 24.5–29.4% 23.8–30.1% 23.2–30.8% 22.1–32.1%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 23.6% 21.4–26.1% 20.7–26.8% 20.2–27.5% 19.2–28.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.9% 19.8–24.4% 19.1–25.1% 18.6–25.7% 17.6–26.9%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.0–10.1% 6.6–10.5% 6.2–11.0% 5.7–11.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.0% 4.9–7.6% 4.6–8.0% 4.3–8.4% 3.8–9.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.5% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.3% 3.1–6.7% 2.7–7.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.0–4.6% 1.9–4.9% 1.6–5.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.0–4.6% 1.9–4.9% 1.6–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 54% 95% Median
7 39% 41%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 44% 98.7%  
6 51% 54% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 69% 91% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 67% 68% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 99.3% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 80% 81% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 54% 95% Median
7 39% 41%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 69% 91% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 80% 99.4% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 73% 85% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations