Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 10–15 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 30.6% 28.0–33.3% 27.3–34.1% 26.7–34.8% 25.5–36.1%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 24.2% 21.9–26.8% 21.2–27.5% 20.7–28.2% 19.6–29.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.6% 21.3–26.2% 20.6–26.9% 20.1–27.5% 19.0–28.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.2% 5.1–9.6% 4.5–10.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.8% 4.7–7.4% 4.3–7.8% 4.1–8.2% 3.6–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9% 1.4–4.2% 1.1–4.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 1.0–3.4% 0.7–4.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.0% 0.2–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 9% 100%  
7 68% 91% Median
8 22% 23%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 42% 98.7%  
6 53% 57% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 39% 41%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 77% 99.9% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 9% 100%  
7 68% 91% Median
8 22% 23%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 39% 41%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations