Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 15–24 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 31.0% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 27.9–34.3% 26.9–35.3%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 27.0% 25.1–29.1% 24.5–29.7% 24.1–30.2% 23.2–31.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.3–22.0% 17.8–22.5% 17.4–23.0% 16.6–23.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.3% 100%  
7 50% 98.7% Median
8 47% 48%  
9 1.5% 1.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 55% 98.9% Median
7 43% 44%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 32% 99.9%  
5 66% 68% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.3% 100%  
7 50% 98.7% Median
8 47% 48%  
9 1.5% 1.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 32% 99.9%  
5 66% 68% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations