Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV, Correio da Manhã, Negócios and News Now, 10–16 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.9% 25.5–30.5% 24.8–31.3% 24.3–31.9% 23.2–33.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.4% 21.2–25.9% 20.5–26.6% 20.0–27.2% 19.0–28.4%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 22.5% 20.3–24.9% 19.6–25.6% 19.1–26.2% 18.1–27.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.7% 6.4–9.4% 6.1–9.9% 5.7–10.3% 5.2–11.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.6% 5.4–8.2% 5.1–8.7% 4.8–9.1% 4.3–9.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.3–5.0% 2.2–5.3% 1.8–6.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.7–4.6% 1.4–5.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.6–4.4% 1.3–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 34% 98.9%  
7 56% 65% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 48% 98%  
6 47% 50% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 59% 95% Median
6 35% 36%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 80% 99.9% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 34% 98.9%  
7 56% 65% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 48% 98%  
6 47% 50% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 74% 99.9% Median
2 25% 26%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 38% 41%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations