Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 24–25 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.4% 26.9–32.1% 26.2–32.9% 25.6–33.5% 24.4–34.9%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 25.4% 23.0–28.0% 22.3–28.8% 21.8–29.4% 20.7–30.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.6% 21.3–26.2% 20.6–26.9% 20.1–27.5% 19.0–28.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.6% 5.4–8.2% 5.0–8.7% 4.7–9.1% 4.2–10.0%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.8% 4.7–7.4% 4.3–7.8% 4.1–8.2% 3.6–9.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.9% 1.0–4.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9% 0.8–3.1% 0.6–3.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9% 0.8–3.1% 0.6–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 22% 99.7%  
7 62% 78% Median
8 15% 16%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 21% 99.8%  
6 65% 79% Median
7 14% 14%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 49% 98% Median
6 46% 49%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 85% 99.8% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 22% 99.7%  
7 62% 78% Median
8 15% 16%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 49% 98% Median
6 46% 49%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 92% 98% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations