Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Antena 1, Público and RTP, 6–10 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.4% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.4% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 23% 100%  
7 73% 77% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 24% 100%  
7 73% 76% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 20% 100%  
5 78% 80% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 99.9% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 23% 100%  
7 73% 77% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 20% 100%  
5 78% 80% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 99.9% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations