Opinion Poll by Intercampus for News Now, 9–14 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.6% 24.2–29.2% 23.6–29.9% 23.0–30.5% 21.9–31.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 22.8% 20.6–25.3% 20.0–26.0% 19.4–26.6% 18.4–27.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 22.1% 19.9–24.5% 19.3–25.2% 18.7–25.8% 17.7–27.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.3–10.4% 6.9–10.9% 6.6–11.4% 6.0–12.3%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.7% 6.4–9.4% 6.1–9.9% 5.7–10.3% 5.2–11.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 3.7–6.1% 3.4–6.5% 3.2–6.9% 2.8–7.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.7–4.6% 1.4–5.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4% 1.2–3.7% 0.9–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 59% 93% Median
7 33% 34%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 60% 96% Median
6 34% 35%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 69% 90% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 76% 78% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 53% 100% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 59% 93% Median
7 33% 34%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 69% 90% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 46% 100% Median
2 50% 54%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 83% 85% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations