Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 20–21 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.1% 26.6–31.8% 25.9–32.6% 25.3–33.3% 24.2–34.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 26.3% 23.9–29.0% 23.3–29.7% 22.7–30.4% 21.6–31.7%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 23.2% 20.9–25.7% 20.2–26.4% 19.7–27.1% 18.6–28.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.1–9.1% 5.7–9.6% 5.4–10.0% 4.8–10.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.6% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4% 3.1–6.8% 2.7–7.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.9% 1.0–4.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.4% 0.7–3.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.6% 0.7–2.9% 0.5–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 26% 99.3%  
7 62% 73% Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 10% 100%  
6 65% 90% Median
7 24% 25%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 61% 96% Median
6 33% 35%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 26% 99.3%  
7 62% 73% Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 10% 100%  
6 65% 90% Median
7 24% 25%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 77% 79% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations