Opinion Poll by Aximage for Folha Nacional, 22–27 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.3–31.1% 25.7–31.8% 25.1–32.4% 24.1–33.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 26.3% 24.0–28.7% 23.4–29.4% 22.9–30.0% 21.8–31.2%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 25.1% 22.9–27.5% 22.3–28.2% 21.7–28.7% 20.7–29.9%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.5% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.5% 5.6–9.9% 5.1–10.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.8–5.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–3.9% 1.2–4.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.8–3.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 32% 99.5%  
7 60% 68% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 66% 92% Median
7 25% 26%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 21% 99.9%  
6 68% 79% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 63% 100% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 32% 99.5%  
7 60% 68% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 66% 92% Median
7 25% 26%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations