Opinion Poll by Intercampus, 10–31 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 25.0–29.2% 24.4–29.8% 23.9–30.3% 22.9–31.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 24.4% 22.4–26.5% 21.9–27.1% 21.4–27.6% 20.5–28.7%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 22.2% 20.3–24.2% 19.8–24.8% 19.3–25.3% 18.4–26.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.4–10.3% 5.8–11.1%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.9% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6% 5.3–9.0% 4.8–9.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.3% 100%  
6 46% 98.7%  
7 51% 53% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 26% 99.9%  
6 67% 74% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 65% 96% Median
6 31% 31%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.3% 100%  
6 46% 98.7%  
7 51% 53% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 26% 99.9%  
6 67% 74% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 64% 100% Median
2 33% 36%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 27%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations