Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 17 August–7 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.8% 24.7–32.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 27.6% 25.7–29.7% 25.1–30.3% 24.6–30.8% 23.7–31.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 24.3% 22.4–26.3% 21.9–26.8% 21.4–27.3% 20.5–28.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.7% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.7–9.3%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 33% 99.8%  
7 63% 66% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 51% 98.9% Median
7 47% 48%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 39% 99.8%  
6 59% 61% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 33% 99.8%  
7 63% 66% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 51% 98.9% Median
7 47% 48%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations