Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 7–14 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.5% 25.1–30.0% 24.5–30.7% 23.9–31.4% 22.8–32.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 23.8% 21.6–26.3% 21.0–27.0% 20.4–27.6% 19.4–28.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 23.4% 21.2–25.9% 20.6–26.6% 20.1–27.2% 19.1–28.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.4–11.7% 8.0–12.2% 7.7–12.7% 7.0–13.6%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.7% 2.7–6.0% 2.3–6.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.7–4.5% 1.4–5.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8% 1.4–4.0% 1.1–4.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5% 1.3–3.8% 1.0–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 46% 98%  
7 49% 52% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 44% 99.0%  
6 52% 55% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 51% 98% Median
6 44% 47%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 87% 96% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 46% 98%  
7 49% 52% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.0% 100%  
5 44% 99.0%  
6 52% 55% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 13%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 62% 63% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations