Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 14–15 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.2% 26.7–31.9% 26.0–32.7% 25.4–33.3% 24.2–34.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 28.6% 26.1–31.3% 25.4–32.1% 24.8–32.7% 23.7–34.0%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 22.0% 19.8–24.5% 19.1–25.2% 18.6–25.8% 17.6–27.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.2–8.0% 4.8–8.5% 4.6–8.9% 4.1–9.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 2.0–5.1% 1.6–5.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.5–4.4% 1.2–5.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 1.0–3.4% 0.7–4.0%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 24% 99.6%  
7 63% 76% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 34% 99.1%  
7 57% 65% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 70% 88% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 89% 99.6% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 34% 99.1%  
7 57% 65% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 24% 99.6%  
7 63% 76% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 28%  
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations