Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Sol and TVI, 7 September–5 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.5% 25.5–29.6% 25.0–30.2% 24.5–30.7% 23.6–31.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 27.2% 25.3–29.3% 24.7–29.9% 24.3–30.4% 23.4–31.4%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 23.9% 22.0–25.9% 21.5–26.5% 21.0–27.0% 20.2–27.9%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.7% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.7–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 44% 99.4%  
7 54% 56% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 54% 99.1% Median
7 44% 45%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 34% 99.8%  
6 65% 66% Median
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 54% 99.1% Median
7 44% 45%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 44% 99.4%  
7 54% 56% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations