Opinion Poll by Intercampus for News Now, 6–12 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 24.4% 22.2–26.8% 21.6–27.5% 21.0–28.1% 20.0–29.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 24.0% 21.8–26.4% 21.2–27.1% 20.7–27.7% 19.7–28.9%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 21.7% 19.6–24.1% 19.0–24.7% 18.5–25.3% 17.6–26.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.1% 6.8–9.8% 6.4–10.3% 6.1–10.7% 5.6–11.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.5% 4.4–6.9% 4.1–7.3% 3.9–7.7% 3.4–8.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.3% 3.2–6.7% 2.7–7.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.7% 2.7–6.0% 2.3–6.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.3% 1.8–4.6% 1.5–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 39% 99.3%  
6 55% 60% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 49% 98.7% Median
6 47% 50%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 18% 100%  
5 69% 82% Median
6 13% 13%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 58% 59% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 95% 97% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 49% 98.7% Median
6 47% 50%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 39% 99.3%  
6 55% 60% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 41% 98.9%  
2 57% 58% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 76% 81% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations