Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Sol and TVI, 21 September–12 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.8% 24.7–32.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 27.9% 25.9–30.0% 25.3–30.5% 24.9–31.1% 23.9–32.1%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 22.8% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.1–26.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 4.9–9.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 26% 99.9%  
7 69% 74% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 38% 99.5%  
7 59% 61% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 67% 98% Median
6 31% 31%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 84% 100% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 26% 99.9%  
7 69% 74% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 38% 99.5%  
7 59% 61% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations