Opinion Poll by GfK Metris for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 9–21 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.0% 34.8–39.2% 34.2–39.8% 33.7–40.4% 32.7–41.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.0% 23.1–27.0% 22.5–27.6% 22.1–28.1% 21.2–29.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Aliança 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 111 100–115 99–116 99–118 95–118
Partido Social Democrata 89 71 62–76 62–77 62–82 58–82
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 12–19 10–22 10–22 10–23
CDS–Partido Popular 18 14 13–19 11–20 10–22 10–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 17 14–20 12–20 12–20 9–23
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–6 2–6 2–6 2–6
Aliança 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
LIVRE 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.8%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0.9% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 98.9%  
97 1.0% 98.8%  
98 0.1% 98%  
99 7% 98%  
100 2% 91%  
101 0.5% 88%  
102 4% 88%  
103 1.1% 84%  
104 2% 83%  
105 5% 81%  
106 8% 76%  
107 6% 69%  
108 3% 63%  
109 5% 60%  
110 4% 56%  
111 6% 52% Median
112 27% 46%  
113 4% 18%  
114 0.3% 14%  
115 8% 14%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 0.1% 4%  
118 3% 4%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.5%  
60 0.1% 99.2%  
61 1.2% 99.1%  
62 9% 98%  
63 3% 89%  
64 5% 86%  
65 0.9% 80%  
66 12% 80%  
67 0.2% 68%  
68 9% 68%  
69 7% 58%  
70 0.5% 51%  
71 28% 50% Median
72 3% 22%  
73 4% 19%  
74 4% 15%  
75 0.5% 11%  
76 5% 10%  
77 0.8% 5%  
78 0.6% 4%  
79 0.5% 4%  
80 0.2% 3%  
81 0.1% 3%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 2% 94%  
12 9% 92%  
13 7% 84%  
14 2% 76%  
15 28% 74% Median
16 7% 46%  
17 22% 39%  
18 7% 17%  
19 3% 11% Last Result
20 1.3% 7%  
21 0.9% 6%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.2% 0.7%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.9%  
11 4% 96%  
12 1.5% 92%  
13 38% 91%  
14 7% 53% Median
15 3% 46%  
16 12% 43%  
17 5% 31%  
18 10% 26% Last Result
19 9% 16%  
20 5% 8%  
21 0.4% 3%  
22 0.9% 3%  
23 1.0% 2%  
24 0.4% 1.0%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.9% 99.8%  
10 0.2% 98.9%  
11 0.9% 98.7%  
12 4% 98%  
13 2% 94%  
14 32% 92%  
15 2% 61%  
16 9% 59%  
17 25% 50% Last Result, Median
18 10% 25%  
19 4% 16%  
20 10% 12%  
21 0.3% 2%  
22 0.9% 1.5%  
23 0.3% 0.6%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100% Last Result
2 33% 99.6%  
3 33% 67% Median
4 23% 34%  
5 0.6% 11%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 2% 64%  
2 60% 62% Median
3 0.5% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 56% 59% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 141 100% 134–146 132–149 130–149 128–152
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 126 96% 116–132 116–134 114–135 110–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 126 96% 118–132 117–132 114–133 112–134
Partido Socialista 86 111 6% 100–115 99–116 99–118 95–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 84 0% 78–91 78–92 76–94 75–98

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9% Last Result
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.4% 99.6%  
129 1.2% 99.2%  
130 1.2% 98%  
131 1.5% 97%  
132 3% 95%  
133 1.0% 92%  
134 3% 91%  
135 1.2% 88%  
136 7% 87%  
137 3% 80%  
138 10% 77%  
139 3% 66%  
140 6% 63%  
141 27% 58%  
142 3% 30%  
143 0.4% 28% Median
144 3% 27%  
145 4% 24%  
146 10% 20%  
147 1.0% 10%  
148 1.2% 9%  
149 6% 8%  
150 0.2% 1.4%  
151 0.3% 1.2%  
152 0.8% 0.9%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.3% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.6%  
111 0.3% 99.3%  
112 1.0% 99.0%  
113 0.3% 98%  
114 1.3% 98%  
115 0.2% 96%  
116 7% 96% Majority
117 2% 89%  
118 0.8% 87%  
119 4% 86%  
120 2% 82%  
121 4% 80%  
122 3% 76%  
123 3% 73%  
124 7% 70%  
125 6% 63%  
126 25% 57%  
127 6% 32%  
128 1.3% 25% Median
129 5% 24%  
130 4% 19%  
131 4% 16%  
132 6% 12%  
133 0.3% 6%  
134 1.1% 5%  
135 3% 4%  
136 0% 0.9%  
137 0.8% 0.9%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.8% 99.6%  
113 0.6% 98.8%  
114 1.1% 98%  
115 0.7% 97%  
116 0.4% 96% Majority
117 4% 96%  
118 9% 92%  
119 1.2% 83%  
120 7% 82%  
121 7% 75%  
122 6% 68%  
123 1.3% 62%  
124 4% 61%  
125 0.8% 56%  
126 12% 56% Median
127 24% 44%  
128 7% 20%  
129 0.1% 13%  
130 0.4% 13%  
131 0.4% 13%  
132 9% 13%  
133 2% 3%  
134 1.0% 1.3%  
135 0% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.8%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0.9% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 98.9%  
97 1.0% 98.8%  
98 0.1% 98%  
99 7% 98%  
100 2% 91%  
101 0.5% 88%  
102 4% 88%  
103 1.1% 84%  
104 2% 83%  
105 5% 81%  
106 8% 76%  
107 6% 69%  
108 3% 63%  
109 5% 60%  
110 4% 56%  
111 6% 52% Median
112 27% 46%  
113 4% 18%  
114 0.3% 14%  
115 8% 14%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 0.1% 4%  
118 3% 4%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.9% 99.6%  
76 1.3% 98.6%  
77 0.6% 97%  
78 7% 97%  
79 11% 90%  
80 3% 79%  
81 1.5% 75%  
82 4% 74%  
83 1.0% 70%  
84 29% 69%  
85 4% 40% Median
86 6% 36%  
87 11% 30%  
88 2% 19%  
89 4% 17%  
90 1.0% 13%  
91 4% 12%  
92 4% 8%  
93 0.7% 4%  
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.3% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations