LIVRE

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.7% (General Election of 4 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 1.0% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8% 0.2–2.1%
30 September–3 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
29 September–2 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
26 September–2 October 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
28 September–1 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
26 September–1 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 September–1 October 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
26–29 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
23–29 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
26–29 September 2019 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP		 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
25–28 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
24–27 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
23–26 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
22–25 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
21–25 September 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
21–24 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
20–23 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
19–22 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
18–21 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
17–20 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
9–12 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
7–12 September 2019 Eurosondagem 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–11 September 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–8 September 2019 Aximage 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24 August–5 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
1–5 September 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–24 August 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
18–28 July 2019 Multidados
TVI		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–15 July 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–14 July 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–11 July 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–27 June 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
13–19 June 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–6 June 2019 Eurosondagem 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 May 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–19 May 2019 Pitagórica 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–19 May 2019 CESOP–UCP 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–12 May 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–13 April 2019 Pitagórica 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–11 April 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 March–1 April 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–14 March 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–13 March 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–21 February 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%
5–10 February 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–9 January 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–7 January 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–11 December 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–14 November 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–12 November 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–3 October 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–12 September 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 September 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–16 July 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–11 July 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–12 June 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–9 May 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–9 May 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 April 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–14 March 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–5 March 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–6 February 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 January 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–9 January 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for LIVRE.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 14% 100%  
0.5–1.5% 79% 86% Last Result, Median
1.5–2.5% 7% 7%  
2.5–3.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 4 October 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
30 September–3 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
29 September–2 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
26 September–2 October 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
28 September–1 October 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
26 September–1 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
25 September–1 October 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal		          
27–30 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–5
26–29 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–5
23–29 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
26–29 September 2019 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP		 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
25–28 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
24–27 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
23–26 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
22–25 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
21–25 September 2019 Aximage
Jornal Económico		 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–5
21–24 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
20–23 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
19–22 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
18–21 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0 0 0 0–1
17–20 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0 0 0 0–1
9–12 September 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
7–12 September 2019 Eurosondagem          
2–11 September 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
1–8 September 2019 Aximage          
24 August–5 September 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
1–5 September 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		          
12–24 August 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
18–28 July 2019 Multidados
TVI		          
12–15 July 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
8–14 July 2019 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias		          
7–11 July 2019 Eurosondagem
Associação Mutualista Montepio		          
15–27 June 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 0 0 0 0 0–1
13–19 June 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
2–6 June 2019 Eurosondagem          
16–22 May 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
10–19 May 2019 Pitagórica          
16–19 May 2019 CESOP–UCP          
7–12 May 2019 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
3–13 April 2019 Pitagórica          
7–11 April 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
30 March–1 April 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
10–14 March 2019 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol		          
9–13 March 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
9–21 February 2019 GfK Metris
Expresso and SIC Notícias		 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
5–10 February 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
2–9 January 2019 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
4–7 January 2019 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
7–11 December 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã and Negócios		          
7–14 November 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
9–12 November 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
1–3 October 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
5–12 September 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
1–2 September 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
13–16 July 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
4–11 July 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
9–12 June 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
3–9 May 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
5–9 May 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
8–12 April 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
8–14 March 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
2–5 March 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
3–6 February 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          
14–17 January 2018 Eurosondagem
Expresso and SIC Notícias		          
6–9 January 2018 Aximage
Correio da Manhã		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for LIVRE.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 56% 57% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%