Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 15–27 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 37.7% | 35.5–39.9% | 34.9–40.6% | 34.4–41.1% | 33.4–42.2% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 22.8% | 21.0–24.8% | 20.5–25.4% | 20.1–25.9% | 19.2–26.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.9–13.2% | 8.3–14.0% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| Chega | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| LIVRE | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
| Aliança | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 104–118 | 101–119 | 101–119 | 95–127 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 64 | 60–72 | 59–72 | 57–73 | 54–77 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 28 | 20–28 | 19–29 | 18–29 | 17–32 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 11–22 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–15 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 2–9 |
| Chega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| LIVRE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aliança | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 4% | 93% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 106 | 3% | 89% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 110 | 30% | 83% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 54% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 52% | |
| 113 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 114 | 2% | 48% | |
| 115 | 3% | 46% | |
| 116 | 26% | 42% | Majority |
| 117 | 6% | 17% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 119 | 7% | 10% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 59 | 4% | 96% | |
| 60 | 8% | 92% | |
| 61 | 32% | 84% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 52% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 51% | |
| 64 | 28% | 51% | Median |
| 65 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 67 | 2% | 21% | |
| 68 | 5% | 19% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 72 | 10% | 13% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 20 | 5% | 91% | |
| 21 | 3% | 86% | |
| 22 | 2% | 82% | |
| 23 | 6% | 81% | |
| 24 | 2% | 75% | |
| 25 | 4% | 72% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 27 | 7% | 68% | |
| 28 | 55% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 32% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 6% | 67% | |
| 15 | 2% | 61% | |
| 16 | 6% | 59% | |
| 17 | 16% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 3% | 37% | |
| 19 | 30% | 34% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 34% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 52% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 13% | |
| 9 | 5% | 12% | |
| 10 | 5% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 31% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 68% | |
| 5 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 29% | 38% | |
| 7 | 3% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Aliança
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 157 | 100% | 145–157 | 145–158 | 144–161 | 140–163 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 138 | 100% | 129–144 | 128–144 | 128–144 | 122–149 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 129 | 99.3% | 120–134 | 118–136 | 118–137 | 113–144 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 42% | 104–118 | 101–119 | 101–119 | 95–127 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 70 | 0% | 68–79 | 66–79 | 63–80 | 62–84 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 10% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 149 | 5% | 85% | |
| 150 | 2% | 80% | |
| 151 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 77% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 76% | |
| 154 | 6% | 75% | |
| 155 | 8% | 70% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 62% | |
| 157 | 56% | 62% | |
| 158 | 2% | 6% | Median |
| 159 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 128 | 6% | 98% | |
| 129 | 5% | 93% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 131 | 4% | 87% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 134 | 2% | 82% | |
| 135 | 2% | 80% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 77% | |
| 137 | 6% | 76% | |
| 138 | 33% | 70% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 35% | Median |
| 142 | 5% | 35% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 144 | 28% | 30% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 118 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 120 | 7% | 93% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 126 | 4% | 84% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 128 | 3% | 80% | |
| 129 | 53% | 77% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 23% | Median |
| 131 | 5% | 23% | |
| 132 | 4% | 18% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 134 | 5% | 13% | |
| 135 | 0% | 8% | |
| 136 | 4% | 8% | |
| 137 | 2% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 2% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 4% | 93% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 106 | 3% | 89% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 110 | 30% | 83% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 54% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 52% | |
| 113 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 114 | 2% | 48% | |
| 115 | 3% | 46% | |
| 116 | 26% | 42% | Majority |
| 117 | 6% | 17% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 119 | 7% | 10% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 68 | 28% | 92% | |
| 69 | 6% | 64% | |
| 70 | 34% | 58% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 24% | Median |
| 72 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 73 | 2% | 24% | |
| 74 | 4% | 22% | |
| 75 | 3% | 18% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 79 | 10% | 13% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ICS/ISCTE
- Commissioner(s): Expresso and SIC Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 15–27 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 801
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.55%